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Department of Veterinary Medicine

Cambridge Veterinary School

Studying at Cambridge


Dr TJ McKinley

Dr TJ McKinley

Research Associate

Office Phone: +44 (0) 1223 337685


I obtained a BSc (Hons.) in Mathematics (2003) and a PhD in Statistics (2007) at the University of Exeter. In October 2006 I joined the Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium at the University of Cambridge as a Research Associate in Statistics.

Departments and Institutes

Cambridge Infectious Diseases:

Research Interests

I am interested in applying and developing statistical methodology for the study of infectious diseases. My PhD thesis, under the supervision of Prof. Trevor Bailey, explored the feasibility of using spatial survival analysis as a means of predicting the path of infection in large-scale infectious animal disease epidemics. More recently I have been investigating the use of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and pseudo-marginal techniques as an alternative means of estimating parameters in epidemic models where the calculation of the likelihood is often far from trivial.

I also work alongside collaborators in the Department of Veterinary Medicine to provide statistical advice and input for various projects in different disease systems, including: risk factors associated with persistent bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infections in cattle herds in the UK (alongside the Veterinary Laboratories Agency); in vitro and in vivo dynamics of bacterial infections, such as Salmonella; and risk factors for pleurisy in pigs farms in the UK.

Recently we have developed a screening algorithm for identifying single-site mutations of interest in sequence data, and are currently developing the method for use with next-generation sequencing.

Key Publications

2013: Trevelyan J. McKinley, Josh Ross, Robert Deardon and Alex R. Cook “Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models”, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, doi:10.1016/j.csda.2012.12.012.

2012: Katerina Karolemeas, Christl A. Donnelly, Andrew J. K. Conlan, Andrew P. Mitchell, Richard S. Clifton-Hadley, Paul Upton, James L. N. Wood and Trevelyan J. McKinley, “The effect of badger culling on breakdown prolongation and recurrence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds in Great Britain”, PLoS ONE, 7(12), e51342, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0051342.

2011: Trevelyan J. McKinley, Pablo R. Murcia, Julia R. Gog, Mariana Varela and James L.N.Wood, “A Bayesian approach to analyse genetic variation within RNA viral populations”, PLoS Computational Biology, 7 (3), e1002027, doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002027.

2009: Trevelyan J. McKinley, Alex R. Cook and Rob Deardon, “Inference in epidemic models without likelihoods”, The International Journal of Biostatistics 5 (1), doi:10.2202/1557-4679.1171.

2012: Andrew J. K. Conlan, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Katerina Karolemeas, Ellen Brooks Pollock, Anthony V. Goodchild, Andrew Mitchell, Colin P. D. Birch, Richard S. Clifton-Hadley and James L. N. Wood, “Estimating the hidden burden of bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain”, PLoS Computational Biology, 8(10), e1002730, doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002730.

2012: Katerina Karolemeas, Ricardo de la Rua-Domenech, Roderick Cooper, Anthony V. Goodchild, Richard S. Clifton-Hadley, Andrew J. K. Conlan, Andrew P. Mitchell, R. Glyn Hewinson, Christl A. Donnelly, James L. N. Wood and Trevelyan J. McKinley, “Estimation of the relative sensitivity of the comparative tuberculin skin test in tuberculous cattle herds subjected to depopulation”, PLoS ONE, 7(8), e43217, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043217.

2011: Katerina Karolemeas, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Richard S. Clifton-Hadley, Anthony V. Goodchild, Andrew Mitchell, W. T. Johnston, Andrew J. K. Conlan, Christl A. Donnelly and James L. N. Wood, “Recurrence of bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain: risk factors and prediction”, Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 102, 22–29, doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.004.

2010: Katerina Karolemeas, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Richard S. Clifton-Hadley, Anthony V. Goodchild, Andy Mitchell, W.T. Johnston, Andrew J.K. Conlan, Christl A. Donnelly and James L.N. Wood, “Predicting prolonged bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain as an aid to control”, Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 97 (3–4), 183–190, doi:/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.09.007.

2011: Jon Lyall, Richard M. Irvine, Adrian Sherman, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Alejandro Núñez, Auriol Purdie, Linzy Outtrim, Ian H. Brown, Genevieve Rolleston-Smith, Helen Sang and Laurence Tiley, “Suppression of avian influenza transmission in genetically modified chickens”, Science, 331 (6014), 223–226, doi:10.1126/science.1198020.

2008: Andrew J. Grant, Olivier Restif, Trevelyan J. McKinley, Mark Sheppard, Duncan J. Maskell and Pietro Mastroeni, “Modeling within-host spatiotemporal dynamics of invasive bacterial disease”, PLoS Biology 6 (4), e74 doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060074.

2010: Pablo Murcia, Gregory J. Baillie, Janet Daly, Debra Elton, Carley Jervis, Jennifer A. Mumford, Richard Newton, Colin R. Parrish, Karin Hoelzer, Gordon Dougan, Julian Parkhill, Nicola Lennard, Doug Ormond, Sharon Moule, Andrew Whitwham, Trevelyan J. McKinley, John W. McCauley, Edward C. Holmes, Bryan T. Grenfell and James L.N. Wood, “The intra- and inter-host evolutionary dynamics of equine influenza virus”, Journal of Virology, 84 (14), 6943–6954, doi:10.1128/JVI.00112-10.